This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Propels Aston Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid
It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough query to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.
According to Opta, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have just won 10 in a row, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping Rogers to rescue them with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened versus United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.